Confronting Iran?

The recent collapse in the price of oil eliminates one of the constraints in confronting Iran's nuclear program with a military strike - the fear that such a confrontation would lead to catastrophically high oil prices, which was a significant concern over the past 18 months when oil was racing upward to $145 a barrel.

But unless George Bush stuns the world, it looks likely he will pass on to Barack Obama the burden of confronting Iran militarily.

This is not the outcome one would have predicted in 2002 and 2003, when Bush included Iran in the axis of evil and clearly outlined his rationale for dealing with threats before they materialized - and no threat would be higher on that list than Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But unless Bush delivers a shocker, he will have bowed to the pressure of Democrats and the international community and not degrade or destroy Iran's nuclear program. Moreover, I suspect he sees advantages to Obama having to deal with the issue, betting that Obama will launch a military campaign against Iran rather than risk political devastation in the 2010 or 2012 elections by "letting Iran get the bomb."

Because if Obama does confront Iran with military force, two good things will happen from Bush's perspective. The fundamental tenets of Bush's foreign policy will have been adopted by the Democrats. And it will begin the political rehabilitation of Bush and his legacy.

I think this scenario, more than any other, is what Joe Biden had in mind during the campaign when he told supporters that Obama might surprise them, and would need their patience and support, when dealing with a foreign policy crisis.

All things considered, I think George Bush will win this bet.