Friday, September 3, 2010

A Fearful America

The Labor Department announced that the unemployment rate rose to 9.6% as the economy lost 54,000 jobs in August.

Normally at this time in a recovery, unemployment is declining and GDP is growing quickly.

What happened? Businesses and investors have become very cautious about making new investments, whether in the form of spending capital on new factories or increasing expenses to expand operations or develop new products lines. With tax increases looming, the further socialization of the healthcare industry underway, an unprecedented monetary policy that stokes the fears of future inflation, the assault on the financial services industry through new legislation and its demonization by politicians and the media continuing, non-defense government spending running at unprecedented levels, the increase in the minimum wage pricing some workers out of jobs, and previously negotiated free trade agreements stalling in Congress, businesses and investors have many good reasons to be nervous about the future.

One manifestation of this fear is the mountain of cash that American companies are keeping on their balance sheets, at over $2 trillion in aggregate. In more optimistic times (i.e., during other recoveries from recession), companies would be rushing to invest that money, or return it to their shareholders to invest, which would be the most effective stimulus plan of all.

But that requires a confidence in the future that is lacking. Another "change" that we can thank Barack Obama for.

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