Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Recently, it seemed that Barack Obama was getting a new seriousness about foreign policy. During his Asian trip, he told an audience that the United States would not be leaving Afghanistan in July 2011, notwithstanding his previous comments to begin withdrawing troops then.

One of the colossal mistakes Obama made in announcing his Afghanistan "surge" was to concurrently announce the withdrawal of American troops 20 months later - thus giving comfort to the Taliban that they could wait out an impatient America and causing Hamid Karzai to accommodate the Taliban given his desire to secure political power for himself without the benefit of American power in the near-term.

So Obama's comments mark an attempt to change direction, give heart to America's allies in Afghanistan that we have staying power, and to cause our enemies to realize we aren't leaving until we secure our goals.

Likewise, within a few days of Obama's comments on Afghanistan, an administration official indicated the need for the American military to remain engaged in Iraq longer than previously discussed. Since this shift in policy was made during a belated effort by the Obama administration to resolve the political stand off in Iraq that has led to delays in forming a new government after elections this past March, it has the appearance that such an American commitment was demanded by some of the political parties in Iraq - since an American presence helps ensure that sectarian disputes don't turn into civil war.

Both these changes are critical to having America as favorable an outcome in Iraq and Afghanistan as we can, and it is a sign of growing maturity on the part of Obama to change course.

It may also be a recognition that now that the Obama has suffered a severe loss in the mid-term elections, his ability to achieve any of his agenda on domestic policy is in tatters - whereas foreign policy remains largely (but not entirely) his prerogative. This growing assertiveness of America's interests may also be a way for Obama to move right in preparation for the 2012 elections.

Unfortunately, all is not well with Obama's recent foreign policy pronouncements. While in Indonesia, he felt the need to criticize Israel again for building more housing in the Jerusalem. Obama's previous criticisms of Israel for such construction activity led to a breakdown in the very discussions between the Israelis and Palestinians that Obama so fervently wanted to encourage.

So Obama's recent maturation on foreign affairs can't fully overcome his desire to appease his Indonesian hosts nor his left wing base.