Monday, December 14, 2009

Iran Takes Hostages, Again

Iran announced that it will try three American, who were hiking near the Iranian border, as spies. This continues a pattern of similar incidents, such as last week capturing five British citizens who were sailing in or near Iranian waters. The five Brits were released, and I suspect the three Americans will eventually be released after a show trial followed by a pardon by the Iranian regime.

You may wonder why Iran would do such a thing. I can see a number of benefits to the regime:
  • It sends a message to Iranians, many of whom are protesting stolen elections from earlier this year, that if America can't even help its own citizens it surely won't help you in your protests.
  • It creates the impression domestically that America is threatening the country, in a hope of rallying disenchanted Iranians to support the regime against external threats.
  • It allows the thuggish regime to gain credibility and respect when American leaders have to ask for the return of the three captives.
  • The regime looks "generous" when it subsequently releases them.
  • It demonstrates to America that Iran can hurt us in many ways, attempting to deter an American military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
And what price does Iran pay for this behavior, which in previous times would have been grounds for war? Nothing. Iran knows very well America won't make them pay a fearful price for harming or threatening Americans.

If there only benefits, and no costs, from acting thuggishly, expect more of the same.

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