The disturbing news reports this week on Iran's progress toward enriching uranium remind me of this vestige of the Cold War. The International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran has 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium. Since about double that amount is needed for a nuclear weapon, and since Iran apparently is enriching about 2.5 kilograms per day, Tehran is about eight months away from having a key ingredient for a bomb. They would still need to enrich the uranium to a higher level to make it weapons-grade, and work to turn the material into a bomb, which take some time.
But the Doomsday Clock is already close to midnight and ticking.
After the failures of the five year European-led diplomatic effort to convince Iran to abandon its nuclear program, with the resulting mild UN sanctions having no meaningful effect, a more radical effort is needed if we wish to avoid a military confrontation or meekly acquiesce to a nuclear-armed Iran.
Today's low oil prices allow us to more easily consider a total economic embargo of Iran - with a boycott of Iran's oil exports the central element of such an effort. The lack of oil export revenues, along with preventing Iran from importing gasoline and shutting the country off from international financial transactions, would be economically devastating to Iran - quickly.
Increased production from Saudi Arabia, and if needed a release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum, can mitigate the loss of Iran's oil exports - and the current depressed state of the oil market makes this a more viable time to consider such a strategy.
Unless the impact is quick and profound, sanctions and diplomacy will have no realistic chance of stopping Iran; the strategic benefits of being a nuclear power are too great for another "package" of incentives to stop them.
While this approach could lead to war, since Iran may lash out in response, it at least has a chance of success.
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